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Mortality Working Group

PANDEMICS

A pandemic is an outbreak of infectious disease on an international, regional or global scale. This definition can apply to infections such as influenza, cholera and the HIV pandemic in Africa.

Pandemics can have a significant effect on rates of mortality and hence may impact financial services organisations and indeed all aspects of the community. What could be said about the possibility and severity of future pandemics? What evidence have we of the short- and long-term effects of past pandemics on population mortality? How is the impact of a possible future pandemic taken into account in financial calculations?

OVERVIEW

Longevity Bulletin: Pandemic Edition, July 2015

PAPERS OF INTEREST

Common Influenza Pandemic PAPERS

Mika Mäkinen Pandemic (2009)

A history of influenza. Journal of Applied Microbiology 91(4): 572-579. DOI: Potter C. W. (2001)

Be Prepared! Global Pandemics Primer, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, Sept 2014

Longevity Bulletin: Antimicrobial resistance (Issue 8)

Operating framework for managing the response to pandemic influenza. NHS England (2014)

Pandemic influenza risk management: WHO Interim Guidance World Health Organization (2013)

Review on Antimicrobial Resistance UK Department of Health, HM Treasury, and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office

SwissRe Pandemic influenza: A 21st century model for mortality shocks (2007)

Tackling drug-resistant infections globally: a review on antimicrobial resistance, May 2016 Jim O'Neill

UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy United Kingdom. Department of Health (2011)

PAST INFLUENZA PANDEMICS

A(H1N1)2009

The 2009 influenza pandemic: an independent review of the UK response to the 2009 influenza pandemic. Cabinet Office, Pandemic Flu Review Response Team, Hine D. (2010)

SPANISH DISEASE 1918-1920

1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12(1): 15-22, Taubenberger J.K. and Morens D.M. (2006).

Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. PNAS, 111(22): 8107-8112, Worobey, M., Han, G.-Z. and Rambaut, A. (2014).

Mortality burden of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Europe. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. Blackwell, Ansart S., Pelat C., Boelle P.Y., Carrat F., Flahault A. and Valleron A.J. (2009).

OTHER VIRUS OUTBREAKS

A(H7N9) AVIAN FLU

World Health Organization (2015). Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus

EBOLA

Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Current Outbreaks, September [online], Gomes M. et al. (2014)

Analysis on the Risk of Ebola. International Actuarial Association - Health Committee (2015)

Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Currents Outbreaks, September, Althaus C.L. (2014)

Outbreaks chronology: Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2014)

The Lancet Ebola Resource Centre

World Health Organization (2015). Ebola.

HIV/AIDS

HIV/AIDS: data and statistics, World Health Organization (2015)

HIV/AIDS in the European Region. 27 November 2013, World Health Organization (2013)

Origins of HIV and the AIDS pandemic. Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Medicine, 1(1), Sharp, P.M. and Hahn, B.H. (2011)

MISC PANDEMICS TOPICS

Comparative community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza: results of the Flu Watch cohort study. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 2(6): 445-454, Hayward A.C., Fragaszy E.B., Bermingham A. et al. (2014)

Analytical methods for modelling pandemic flu Presented to the World Bank, Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (2007)

Annual epidemiological report: Reporting on 2010 surveillance data and 2011 epidemic intelligence data, ECDC (2012)

Canadian Institute of Actuaries research paper: Considerations for the Development of Pandemic Scenarios

Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza On the U.S. Health Insurance Industry

UN System Influenza Coordination & The World Bank: Animal and Pandemic Influenza

GOOD DOCUMENT LIBRARIES

University of Cambridge; Center of Risk Studies http://cambridgeriskframework.com/page/20

Documents:
Ebola Contingency Scenario
Sao Paulo Virus Pandemic Stress Test Scenario
Human Pandemic Threat Monography

CIDRAP’s collection to selected reading (good link library) http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/readings/index.html

Institute and Faculti of Actuaries Longevity-bulletin

Subject author

Mika Mäkinen

For further information

Please feel free to contact Mika Mäkinen or any other member of the Working Group with any suggestions for improvements or additions, or any request for information by emailing: iaamwg@actuaries.org The members of the IAA Mortality Working Group are listed here.

We would be particularly interested in receiving advice of any papers, research or studies that you consider worthy of inclusion in our information base.